本周(zhou)國內鋼坯(pi)市(shi)(shi)(shi)場(chang)大幅上(shang)行(xing)，但(dan)(dan)成(cheng)(cheng)交表現(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)多(duo)顯(xian)(xian)一般，廠商謹(jin)慎(shen)堅挺觀望氣氛(fen)多(duo)顯(xian)(xian)。本周(zhou)由于上(shang)游鐵礦(kuang)(kuang)石及焦炭市(shi)(shi)(shi)場(chang)呈(cheng)(cheng)現(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)高(gao)(gao)位(wei)拉漲(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)的行(xing)情，導致鋼企(qi)成(cheng)(cheng)本增加(jia)，加(jia)之(zhi)(zhi)黑(hei)色系期貨市(shi)(shi)(shi)場(chang)強勢創新(xin)高(gao)(gao)，整體(ti)現(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)貨交易(yi)氣氛(fen)得(de)到有(you)利提振，故鋼坯(pi)價格呈(cheng)(cheng)現(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)且在下(xia)半周(zhou)屢創本年(nian)度新(xin)高(gao)(gao)。但(dan)(dan)各地區漲(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)勢表現(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)不一，其(qi)中(zhong)唐山(shan)市(shi)(shi)(shi)場(chang)，因當地下(xia)游軋鋼企(qi)業(ye)因利潤(run)底(di)下(xia)及環(huan)保(bao)影(ying)(ying)響(xiang)而(er)出(chu)現(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)檢修，導致需求(qiu)較弱，故整體(ti)漲(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)勢相對于其(qi)他地區較為謹(jin)慎(shen)；而(er)江(jiang)蘇等地受資源緊俏及下(xia)游成(cheng)(cheng)品材大幅拉漲(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)等因素帶動，漲(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)幅空間大于其(qi)他地區。本周(zhou)鋼坯(pi)投(tou)放量增量有(you)限(xian)，但(dan)(dan)下(xia)游受環(huan)保(bao)及利潤(run)等因素影(ying)(ying)響(xiang)，需求(qiu)下(xia)降明顯(xian)(xian)，此(ci)局(ju)面(mian)一方(fang)面(mian)制約了鋼坯(pi)上(shang)行(xing)，另一方(fang)面(mian)也(ye)使得(de)倉儲鋼坯(pi)庫存(cun)(cun)止降反增，加(jia)重市(shi)(shi)(shi)場(chang)銷售壓力。但(dan)(dan)目(mu)前礦(kuang)(kuang)石仍(reng)(reng)(reng)呈(cheng)(cheng)現(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)高(gao)(gao)位(wei)，鋼企(qi)成(cheng)(cheng)本壓力較大，加(jia)之(zhi)(zhi)部分城(cheng)市(shi)(shi)(shi)供(gong)應緊張局(ju)面(mian)仍(reng)(reng)(reng)存(cun)(cun)，故底(di)部支撐仍(reng)(reng)(reng)強。但(dan)(dan)考慮到本周(zhou)期貨快(kuai)速拉漲(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)之(zhi)(zhi)后，廠商恐(kong)高(gao)(gao)氣氛(fen)漸漸加(jia)重，尤(you)其(qi)是周(zhou)五期貨出(chu)現(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)沖(chong)高(gao)(gao)回(hui)落(luo)趨(qu)勢之(zhi)(zhi)后，此(ci)氣氛(fen)越(yue)發顯(xian)(xian)現(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)。因此(ci)綜合來看(kan)，預計(ji)鋼坯(pi)市(shi)(shi)(shi)場(chang)雖仍(reng)(reng)(reng)存(cun)(cun)上(shang)行(xing)空間，但(dan)(dan)沖(chong)高(gao)(gao)回(hui)落(luo)風(feng)險亦逐漸增加(jia)。